Iran War-ning.
Investment Conclusion.
The arms build-up in the Middle East (ME) is consistent with war, not blockade, in coming days. The war aim will probably be to overthrow of the regime. Lesser war aims are possible, such as obliterating more Iranian ballistic missiles, but would achieve little. That is why I think President Trump will opt for regime change or at least regime-crippling..
The military action will cause a spike in precious metals and oil. But, if the mission is successful, that is likely to be the right moment to sell gold and oil. If the Iranian regime falls, a reforming Iran lowers Middle Eastern and oil geopolitical risk and, over time, increases the supply of oil. That could cut Brent oil prices to US$ 50 & below.
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