But business is not as usual. Uncertainty will rise as the Trump2 Administration struggles to use alternative trade powers. All will be contested in the courts.
The hit to fiscal revenues and the budget deficit of the loss of IEEPA is substantial and will not be easily replaced. And IEEPA tariffs collected will have to be reimbursed along with payment for damages to importing corporations.
Treasury yields are likely to continue to rise to cover increased deficits. Slightly lower inflation from lower replacement tariffs will not reverse this.
The independence and power of the judiciary has been reasserted. President Trump’s power both domestically and internationally will be diminished. The US now lacks an escalatory tariff weapon to coerce other nations across a wide spectrum of policy domains.
It is probable that some trading partners will renegotiate their existing IEEPA deals completely, including their commitment to plough vast investment sums into the US.
The QS investment strategy remains to be short US assets – bonds and equities – as well as the US$. No change there. QS remains long Chinese and Indian equities and the RMB
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