The blow out in EU TTF Natural Gas Futures is a short term market squeeze. Stay away from it. EU gas markets are fairly soundly balanced, Vulnerability to Middle East disruption is very low. The biggest risks are still high dependence on Russian LNG. And even bigger is that the US should target Spain for it lack of enthusiasm for the Iran war. Spain accounts for 20%-25% of all EU LNG imports which in turn account for 25% of all energy supply!!!! In fact the EU has swapped its dependence on Russian pipeline gas for dependence on US LNG. Given the vagaries of the Trump administration that does not seem to me as a giant step towards strategic economic autonomy!!!!!!
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