This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction.
The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility.
This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro events - both economic policy and geopolitical - incur costs too high to be ignored by markets.
During this journey I integrate economic and geopolitical reasons for the bear market to happen.
We visit on the way macro economic issues: Surprises; Asset bubbles; Unbalanced Growth; Tariffs, Inflation, the Fed; and Fiscal risks.
And the study is completed by integrating : Escalation of Grayzone Warfare; Alignment of security and economic policy; President Trump's Ukraine deal; the coming Israel - Iran War; China - Taiwan; and the impact on risk of weakened Alliances - importantly those led by the US - on global stability
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