ME The Gulf: After – Matters
Investment Strategy.
Brent oil spiked above $100. That was the limit set in “ME - What Matter Matters?” to sell the rest of the long Brent position. The 50% of the long oil position that remained was sold and the proceeds added to gold. The level oil prices will settle at after the war will be $75-80. So there is further downside. But there is enough oil around to offset a declining rate of disruption in the Gulf.
The Gulf will be reopened for shipping to the tune of 40%-50% within weeks. Sales of oil from strategic reserves are likely
The outcome of the war is likely to be messy for the reasons set out below. So pessimism and caution are the characterise QS strategy. For Financial markets it will be more like Stagflatoion than Goldilocks.
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