Investment Conclusion
For 15 years macro events mattered less to economies and to you. The forecasting
of macro events got better. But the outcomes were less telling economically &
financially. There is now evidence this is reversing. Here’s why! Some very potent
events with big economic consequences are building lethality in the investor
firmament!!! Four are discussed below. There are 100’s out there.
Analysis
Markets have cared progressively less about macro events for the last 15 years.
Two reasons stand out. The economic cost or benefit to investors of getting macro
right fell sustainably. Macro-economic effects were dwarfed by other trends – like
the Great Moderation - that mattered a lot more to inflation and assets than the
odd dent crisis or war. A secondary reason was the increasing dominance of
passive investment why think if the success of your investment business is set by
averaging up and down.