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Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones Here we look at 4 potential outcomes of the Middle East War through the lense of energy prices and demand destruction that matches the outcome. Demand destruction is measured in terms of: the required reduction in global energy c…
ME War – What Moves Matters
ME War – What Moves Matters. This report measures disruption from the Gulf and Red Sea combined. Despite already being disrupted the Red Sea can add a lot more in terms of energy, freight costs, food, fertilizer and metals. This will be an inevitability if President Trump e…
Gold, Clausewitz & Chocolate
Gold, Clausewitz & Chocolate. This report measures which countries may sell gold to meet the rising cost of the Middle East Crisis. The method is to measure a country's temptation to sell gold as a function of how much gold it owns and how great is its vulnerabi…
Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes
Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes. Miracles can happen. The Iranian regime could fall. But more likely is further escalation. In the end Iran wins strategically even if it loses the war. That transforms the Gulf into Iran's new nuke. And Tehran will have no reason not to…