The Geopolitical risks of this going wrong are very high. Netanyahu has probably signed the Gaza deal to curry favor with Trump - only to make it go wrong later when Hamas refuses to abandon power in Gaza when negotiating stage 2. . Putin may turn Trump’s deal down flat as it contradicts his dreams of empire. The second-round options for the US in both cases are either escalation or escalation – the Kabul option is not in Trump’s mind.
It's an odd geopolitical paradigm because the upside for peace is an upside for USD and US assets because US power would be defined positively for the world. But the geopolitical downside of war would be an upside for the US$ and bonds as safe havens. Peace breaking out would help European assets, and continued wars would hurt them. Consequently, the USD is still a long and the Euro a short set to go below parity to the US$. The Wealth Preservation Portfolio and the “Astern!” macro framework are at the end of this piece.