Ukraine: Worse than Minsk

#Russia#Ukraine#EU Commission#Trump Policy#Trump Administration#Donald Trump#EU (European Union)#Ukraine War#Russia's Economy#Global Alliances#Currency (US Dollar)#Russian Influence#Deglobalisation#Deglobalization#Alliance of Autocracies#Alliance of Democracies#Trump Tariffs.
  
 The liberal world order, if not dead, is very ill in bed. What replaces it will not be orderly or come cheap.
 
States, previously part a network of alliances, will go it alone to ensure their own defense and strategic interests. There will be a massive increase in defence spending in Japan, S. Korea and Europe. 

Markets may ignore the increased economic costs of fragmentation for a while as world order breaks down fast but costs surface slowly. 

Any peace dividend in European assets will be fleeting. The EU faces multiple crises on a wide range of issues: defence, trade, economic restructuring, and the rise of populism.   Risk premia in European assets have to rise. 

Bonds are in a bear market globally as President Trump’s policies in the US and defence spending elsewhere boost fiscal deficits by 2-3% of GDP. Bond vigilantes will emerge and cause crises. 

Gold is now the safe haven asset to own. Gains on the USD DXY are probably capped at around 110 (currently 107.5)
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