1. The new US comprehensive sanctions on Russian financial intermediaries may cripple the EU’s ability to pay for its USD 12bn a year imports of Russian fossil fuels. This can potentially cause further falls in the Ruble and increases in EU ETF prices.
2. The Yi Peng 3/Baltic cable stand-off in the Skagerrak could trigger denial of freedom of navigation by China in the South China Sea with potential for China to mess with Taiwanese shipping. It offers the West an opportunity to clamp down on Russia’s dark fleet. But that’s unlikely to happen. If it escalates it pro safe havens – USD and gold.
3. Iran has set itself on a collision course with the IAEA, Israel and the G7 for blatantly flouting limits on its Uranium enrichment and lying about them. Near term this makes inevitable hard sanctions and embargoes by the Trump administration on Iran - including Iran’s 1.5mn bbl/day exports of oil. Longer term it makes war with Israel to take out Iran’s remaining nuclear assets inevitable. Don’t short oil!