The Call - Dial "M" for Moscow
Putin offered Trump just enough to prevent a breakdown in negotiations. The sectorial “Truce” is meaningless. Putin will use upcoming talks to pursue Russia’s maximalist aims to absorb Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence. That includes no further military help for Ukraine.
Two outcomes are possible. One is Trump loses patience and confronts Russia. The other is the US gives in to Russian demands. If that happens, the Europeans will back Ukraine and NATO is dead.
If there is “peace” the US will withdraw military assets from Europe to focus on the Indo-Pacific theatre. If there is not the US will withdraw military from Europe……the difference is timing and degree of animosity and disorder.
Either way global rearmament is the key theme. Read the “War Dividend – March 10, 2025”. Stay long Defence stocks and European and Japan equities and currencies. But don’t forget we are entering a bear market!