The Truce Proposal
Investment Conclusion
The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe and Putin escalates the war. Or Trump and Putin cook up a deal over the heads of their negotiators which Ukraine and Europe reject. The Transatlantic Alliance and NATO put another foot in the grave. Either way things are not the same.
Expect risk premia to rise on European equities. The Yen and gold are safe havens. I am still long the Euro (nervously now). And I remain short the US$ and US assets.