Investment Conclusion
On August 28, 2025, the European signatories of the UN Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) activated a Snapback clause in the JCPOA that will reimpose sanctions on Iran after 30 days. This is on foot of Tehran’s failure to limit its nuclear development in accordance with the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal.
The Snapback activation is unlikely to hit your portfolio for the following reasons:
1.Oil prices are unlikely to be affected. The areas of trade affected are almost exclusively limited to nuclear assets and arms.
2. The US and Israel combined will control by military means any re-emergence of a nuclear threat in Iran (i.e. they’ll bomb the hell out of it!). The US & Israel are less concerned about agreements like the JCPOA to do the job.
3. Iran is unlikely to retaliate meaningfully to the triggering of the Snapback. It is just another hit to the Iranian economy and to the regime’s prestige. Indeed, the Snapback is only incremental, given Iran’s well-established ability navigate existing sanctions.