War Escalation in Europe.
The multiple Russian drones intrusion into Polish airspace and the kinetic military action to shoot them down is serious escalation. This is coming on top of increasing tension in the Baltic and subversion on land in Sweden and the Baltic states as well. There are also open military threats by Medvedev to Finland.
The background is that the supine reaction of European and the US to Russia’s increased aggression in Ukraine together with the now open backing of Russia by China (since Beijing events) has emboldened Putin. The consensus across all Russian media in the last week is that President Trump will never really inflict any cost on Putin.
This is not yet outright war. But Putin is testing NATO Clause 5 for weakness and splits in the alliance. This will escalate.
I expect an extension of the Ukraine war into direct kinetic confrontation with NATO forces within 12 to 18 months.
Only if the west steps up immediately by imposing really effective energy sanctions and closing Ukrainian and NATO skies will this be avoided. Indoubt that NATO Alliance has the guts, or in the case of the Europeans - the military capacity to do so.
Expect the worst and avoid European risk assets. War with Russia is approaching . Use gold and Yen longs rather than the Euro as a counter party to short US$.