Egonomics - The Resilience of Trump's Alternative Economy.
Investment Conclusion
The resilience of the Trump Administration’s economic policies is greater than I thought. There has been success in creating an alternative economic framework driven by the President’s personality – hence Egonomics. Is this the expression of a coherent plan to replace traditional economics? Or is it by happenstance? Either way, the components hang together as a whole that merits study. It may not change the ultimate outcome in terms of the US Sovereign debt burden, the US dollar and asset bubbles – you will have your own views about that – but it can delay it.
This speaks to further rises in the value of risk assets; a more gradual path of decline for the US$ and delayed hits to the budget deficit from the BBB (The Big Beautiful Budget).
The most immediate threat to the stability of Egonomics would be a Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA as a justification for tariffs. The case is scheduled to be heard on November 5, 2025. Tariffs imposed under IEEPA lie at the core of 71% of President Trump’s trade deals since the beginning of 2025. It would be very hard to duplicate them using other powers such as the , Section 122 of the Trade Act (1974) or Section 230 of the Trade Expansion Act (1962). And tariffs are what makes the economics of this Administration sustainable.
The Wealth Preservation Portfolio will not chase equities here. But will wait for the judgement of the Supreme Court on the President’s use of emergency powers (IEEPA/The International Emergency Economic Powers Act) to impose tariffs. If the ruling is favourable to the Trump Administration, I shall look to increase US equity exposure (with the currency hedged) because, although the ruling would result in even wider use of tariffs, that would make the short-term fiscal gains last longer. Among the sectors I would look to buy are those that are direct beneficiaries of the hard assets involved in AI-Digital-Crypto such as copper producers, power generation & equipment makers as well transmission systems.