Odd bins
A renminbi based international payment and reserve system will take off within a year causing a leg down in the US$’s role as global reserve currency. Gold, not the RMB, will be the reserve asset of choice. Gold will go to US$6000 per troy oz.
The US Supreme Court will rule decisively against the Administration’s use of IEEPA. President Trump will not give up on Tariffs though. The range of alternatives is set out below. None are substitutes for IEEPA. The results will be messy, create uncertainty and are particularly bad for US Treasuries and the US$. The ruling will mean that Tariff revenues will no longer be the perfect offset for BBBA largesse.
Peace in the Middle East may cause container shipping cost to lurch lower damaging the equity of shippers. Other than that US container inflows are stagnating not collapsing. The macroeconomic signal is mediocre.