*Ukraine- US backs Russian demands.*
Below is the full 28 point US plan drawn up without consultation with any allies. It is tantamount to a full capitulation of Ukraine and satisfaction of most of Putin’s war aims. It has received Russian backing. It appears likely that President Trump will also back it and impose a deadline on Ukraine to submit to it.
The reasons this is critical for markets are:
1. It is a Yalta moment for Europe.
Territory gained by invasion is recognised as belonging to the invader. If accepted it will lead to further Russian aggression in Europe within a short time frame.
2. The US 28 point plan makes clear that the US, by meeting Russian demands on the Ukraine issue would not defend a European NATO states against Russia Aggression under the mutual defence clause 5 of the NATO treaty. NATO is de-facto dead and the Europeans are now at a point where they have to face that reality.
3. the Europeans cannot accept this 28 point plan and will back Zelensky in not doing so either. But the Europeans will try to sink the plan by using the detail that crosses red lines (ceding territory, surrendering Russian frozen assets) to do so. They will praise elements they can accept (freezing front lines etc). The purpose of this diplomatic dance will be to stop Trump renouncing both Ukraine and the NATO Treaty. If his Ukraine plan is rejected President Trump may walk away from Europe - not just Ukraine.
4. The NATO Treaty is already empty of meaning (the 28 point plan shows this). But the Europeans hope that the next US President will allow something of NATO to be saved. It is quite probable (59%) that this EU strategy fails and Europe is left alone to face Russia.
5. The consequences are that: -
- Ukraine and the EU will be left to fight on alone in the Russian war in Ukraine. As the US is actually contributing nothing in terms of hardware and finance to Ukraine, continuation of the war is feasible. But withdrawal of the US “enablers” (intel, sattelites, targeting) will weaken Ukrainian capabilities.
- Russia will be emboldened to increase attacks on Europe. - The costs of Defense in Europe will rise to accelerate the achievement of military autonomy Vs Russia and to replace the US contribution to European defence.
- The costs and risks of Europe going it alone will weigh on European asset prices and the Euro. Overweight asian assets and currencies over both US and European peers. Stay long hard assets like Gold, Copper, Strategic Metals and Gold. Next WhatsApp is the 28 point plan in detail.
NEXT IS THE FULL DETAIL OF THE US 28 POINT PLAN.
*The US 28 Point Plan in detail:*
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. The U.S. guarantee: — The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee; — If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee; — If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked; — If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invali
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term
preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to: — The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence. — The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities. — Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas. — Infrastructure development. — Extraction of minerals and natural resources. — The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy: — The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis. — The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities. — Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows: — $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine; — The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice: — Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities. — Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. — All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.
21. Territories: — Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States. — Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact. — Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. — Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues: — All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis. — All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children. — A family reunification program will be implemented. — Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.
End