It may take time. But all roads lead to the same outcome. Some are smooth. Others are bloody. But the Iranian regime is doomed.
Compared to Venezuela re-integrating Iran into the comity of civilised nations will be a cinch. Economic reform will come relatively easy and so will the capital flows to fund it. But the needs will be high. Examples of required investment are US$ 200-300bn for energy and as much again for water and other civilian infrastructure - all over 5 years.
Water is a big issue; the Mullahs have done a great job of destroying Iran's water resources & infrastructure. That's a big ethnic problem too. Endemic water shortages are regional. There is a strong non-Persian ethnic presence in regional and agricultural populations. And Persians are only 60% of Iran's population. That shows why investment in infrastructure is a must for any new government to retain popular support.
For investors the effect of Iranian normalisation will be $10-12/bbl drop in oil global prices. This will be 50% due to increased global supply and 50% due to a fall in risk premium currently part of global oil prices. The knock-on effects are 0.3% - 0.5% boost to global growth and s similar percentage off headline inflation. Of course that assumes nothing else is going on to upset global supply and demand!!!! As a result all this is a scenario not a forecast - something Quantum Strategy specialises in,