Middle East- The Mullah’s Mad Gamble

I got the Iranian attack on Israel wrong. All now depends on Israel's targeting of its escalatory response.  If Israel uses its intelligence to decapitate the Iranian regime (and the IRGC), as it did with Hezbollah, then the economic spillover effects (e.g. energy)) will be limited and Israeli deterrence will be maximised. Other options are more costly- ranging from energy assets (oil above US$90/BBL) to Iranian nuclear assets (global bear market).  My forecast is for an Israel to use intelligence to inflict maximised surgical strikes (first option).