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ETO News TV: The putative Trump ME “Deal” - good or bad and meaning for markets.
ETO News TV: The putative Trump ME “Deal” - good or bad and the meaning for markets. Three savvy anchors and myself probe the ins and outs of what we know about the proposed ME “pause” and how it measures up against market red lines.
Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat
Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat. This report analyses the putative (not yet confirmed) framework agreement to pause the Middle East War ("the deal") while key issues (such as Iranian de-nuclearisation) are negotiated. The widely leaked adumbrate of the deal …
Energy: The American Chapter – how US bails out the world & then doesn’t!
Energy: The American Chapter – how US bails out the world and then doesn’t! US produces and consumes 20mn bpd of crude oil equivalent. But on top this, the US is exporting 10mn bpd to its “allies” – European, Asian and Australia. Thus, the US is draining its own oil rese…
Navigator – Linking Dots
Navigator – Linking Dots. The global energy supply crisis driven by the Middle East (ME) War is set to get worse. Demand exceeds supply for oil and LNG plus some critical raw materials like sulphur. Absolute product shortages will be generalised by the end of summer. …
Peter Lewis Money Talk- The Summit, The Fed, The Gulf and AI
Peter Lewis Money Talk- Peter, Sunil Kashyap and I discuss: The Presidential Xi-Trump summit - What to expect = hot air+nothing; Why China will do little about the Gulf and why the Gulf crisis is a slow burn energy crisis with shortages set to worse;
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP. (An earlier abbreviated text of this piece was sent to clients on the WhatsApp service at the weekend. Their savvy comments inspired revisions to the original now incorporated below.) New data and field work…
NDTV The Trump One Page Memo that Settles Everything - looking at it from the IRGC perpective
NDTV- This 3 bite interview by NDTV’s crack anchors with David Roche is different!! It is mercifully brief and shorn of all BS! And it deals with any US proposal (which we await) from two perspectives: One, that of an Iranian IRGC leader - what does he want and what is he pr…
Peter Lewis Money Talk - The Gulf, Asia & Market Excesses
A very interesting conversation with Carlos Casanova, Peter Lewis and myself about the ecoomic waves that will hit Asia stermming from the Gulf Crisis.
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep The divorce between equity markets and the Middle East crisis is irrational and unsustainable. The energy supply cliff we are approaching makes its collapse imminent.
NDTV Geopolitics Centre Stage! When & Why does macro matter to markets
NDTV Geopolitics Centre Stage! When & Why does macro matter to markets. Applying the theoretical arguments about when Macro matters to Economies and to Markets to what is happening in the MIddle East.