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Middle East Update
Middle East Update Investment Conclusion Conflict will be more prolonged. Oil disruption may be longer lasting and be more substantial than I previously thought. QS is putting back on long Brent positions and adding back 10% to Gold and other hard assets. NOT using …
CNBC Asia Squawk Box - The Imminent End of the Mullahs?
CNBC Squawk Box Asia with Martin Soong and Chery Kang: The end of the mullahs - great! But it’s how we get there that matters to markets.
Iran War-ning
Iran War-ning. Investment Conclusion. The arms build-up in the Middle East (ME) is consistent with war, not blockade, in coming days. The war aim will probably be to overthrow of the regime. Lesser war aims are possible, such as obliterating more Iranian ballistic mi…
Iran: The whole Hog?
I ran - The Whole Hog Investment Conclusion. War to achieve regime change in Iran is looking imminent. The initial result will be risk off and rising oil prices. But longer term a renascent Iran will reduce global oil prices by US$10-12/bbl. This is all set out in…
Iran – the Beginning of the End!
Iran – the Beginning of the End! It may take time. But all roads lead to the same outcome. Some are smooth. Others are bloody. But the Iranian regime is doomed. Compared to Venezuela re-integrating Iran into the comity of civilised nations will be a cinch. Econo…
Iran is unlikely to be a Venezuelan domino but, when the time comes, a domestic economic one.
Iran is unlikely to be a Venezuelan domino but, when the time comes, a domestic economic one.
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk?
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk? Investment Conclusion On August 28, 2025, the European signatories of the UN Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) activated a Snapback clause in the JCPOA that will reimpose sanctions on Iran after 30 days. This is on foot…