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Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
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Why Hasn't the Oil Price Gone Stratospheric? (Client Q&A)
Gulf paralysis has removed an estimated 20mn bpd of crude from global markets — around 12% of world consumption once diverted pipeline flows and shadow-tanker volumes through Hormuz are netted out. This note walks through David Roche's supply-deficit arithmetic, identifies Chin…
Middle East Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover? Watch the Ships, Not the Rigs
David Roche assesses why Middle East crude supply should recover faster than production capacity over the next six months, as Gulf shipping flows and a 300mb inventory buffer narrow the global oil deficit and push crude toward a $75–85/bbl range.
Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Middle East Oil Supply: David Roche's weekend WhatsApp update — now published in full for your reference.
Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Despite mounting claims that clandestine operations are freeing tankers from the Gulf, QS hard data tells a different story: a steady 2.0mn bpd via the Strait of Hormuz, a 12–13mn bpd daily supply shortfall with no change, and a China driving paper price suppression through stra…
Urea & Grain Markets (Client Q&A Example)
Urea & Grain Markets: When a client asked why US fertilizer prices were collapsing while grain prices fell simultaneously, we didn't wait for the next research note! We responded in real time. The answer: two separate stories with two separate drivers and confusing them leads t…
Airline Fuel & the Air France/KLM Assurance (Client Q&A example)
Airline Fuel & the Air France/KLM Assurance: When a client flagged that Air France-KLM's CEO had publicly assured markets of no fuel shortage this summer, they wanted to know: does that undermine the thesis? We broke down exactly why it doesn't, a slashed schedule, pre-crisis he…
The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1
The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1 UAE quitting OPEC means: · No change in oil prices or oil supply in short term as UAE oil outlets are constrained by Gulf blockades. · Long term UAE oil output could painlessly double to 6mn bpd. This would …
AfterWar - War Damage and How Economies Recover
AfterWar - Counting War Damage & Mapping How Economies Heal This report counts the economic damage from a forever loss of 10% of global Oil and Gas supply. That’s about half the current shortfall created by the Gulf shipping paralysis. The cost is that global GDP cont…