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ME Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover?
ME Energy How Fast Will Supply Recover No! I don’t think the ME Deal addresses any of the major issues or makes the world a better place. But it binds Iran and the US together with a common rope of self-interest. Iran, meaning the IRGC thugs, get back into the dollar flo…
Navigator: Middle East – All Change Here! EU-China Trade – War Without a Strategy. And the Sad End of Elvira Nabiullina.
Navigator: Middle East – All Change Here! EU-China Trade – War Without a Strategy. And the Sad End of Elvira Nabiullina. Here's why you need to read this! The three changes that will affect assets: 1. This Middle East "Deal" may get tankers moving and Iran producing o…
Navigator: China - EU Trade Hostilities & Energy Myths
Navigator China EU Trade Hostilities & Energy Myths Four themes this week. (WhatsApp clients have received early briefing on themes in BLUE) 1. Trade War between the EU and China is now inevitable. 2. Chinese sell off of strategic crude oil reserves an…
Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat
Navigator: ME - A Great Deal of Defeat. This report analyses the putative (not yet confirmed) framework agreement to pause the Middle East War ("the deal") while key issues (such as Iranian de-nuclearisation) are negotiated. The widely leaked adumbrate of the deal …
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep The divorce between equity markets and the Middle East crisis is irrational and unsustainable. The energy supply cliff we are approaching makes its collapse imminent.
A Strategy for Chokeholds
A Strategy for Chokeholds This report is about lessons to be learned from the Middle East blockades for the long term de-risking of portfolios and of supply chains. The former lessons are for portfolio managers and the latter for policy makers. The need is urgent because the…
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop Escalation of the Gulf makes the US policy of cutting off Iran’s oil revenues much more effective. The struggle within the Iranian regime, with the hardliners gaining ascendancy at the moment, makes a negotiated settlement with …
ME – Cutting to the Quick
ME – Cutting to the Quick The US blockade so far appears to be only partially successful in halting Iranian oil shipments or restoring freedom of navigation using the Omani exit route from the Straits of Hormuz (SoHo). The continued flow of oil from Iran will ease s…
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf The failure of the Peace Talks means there will be more military action. It is unlikely that the US can afford to return the massive scale of war promised us before. Economically and politically, that is too costly. Inst…
The Defeat of the Deal.
The Defeat of the Deal. This deal is taco with a price tag. For markets no war is a win. For investors it leaves us in Limbo- not Heavan or Hell. For the Iranian regime they emerge as the strategic victor from the war. It achieves lots of IRGC objectiv…