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Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones Here we look at 4 potential outcomes of the Middle East War through the lense of energy prices and demand destruction that matches the outcome. Demand destruction is measured in terms of: the required reduction in global energy c…
ME War – What Moves Matters
ME War – What Moves Matters. This report measures disruption from the Gulf and Red Sea combined. Despite already being disrupted the Red Sea can add a lot more in terms of energy, freight costs, food, fertilizer and metals. This will be an inevitability if President Trump e…
Navigator: The Oil Price – What drives it?
Navigator: The Oil Price – What drives it? It is the flow of oil in and out of crude reserves that drives the oil price and NOT the level or adequacy of inventories. The Middle East War creates a 12.5mn to 20mn bpd hole in global supply. That means every week oil drains out…
Gold, Clausewitz & Chocolate
Gold, Clausewitz & Chocolate. This report measures which countries may sell gold to meet the rising cost of the Middle East Crisis. The method is to measure a country's temptation to sell gold as a function of how much gold it owns and how great is its vulnerabi…
Navigator: ME – The Gordon’s Knot
Navigator: ME – The Gordon’s Knot. (THIS IS ROUGH AS I AM ON THE ROAD – SO NO EDITING!). I am staying out of oil as a hedge. I continue to add to gold. And I remain short US equites and long China – equites and the currency. In currencies, I’m a disbeliever in the …
ME The Gulf: After – Matters
ME The Gulf: After – Matters Investment Strategy. Brent oil spiked above $100. That was the limit set in “ME - What Matter Matters?” to sell the rest of the long Brent position. The 50% of the long oil position that remained was sold and the proceeds added to gold.…
Middle East Update
Middle East Update Investment Conclusion Conflict will be more prolonged. Oil disruption may be longer lasting and be more substantial than I previously thought. QS is putting back on long Brent positions and adding back 10% to Gold and other hard assets. NOT using …