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The ECB & the Fed -- Some Points to Ponder.
Central Banks There were a few interesting things from the ECB and FOMC meetings: ECB Mme LaGarde is convinced that the Eurozone recovery is happening and will accelerate as inflation falls and real incomes rise. Real income will rise because wage increases will …
DeepSeek – Deeply Seeking the Significance.
DeepSeek disrupts Tech creating as many winners (AI users) as losers (the overhyped US Magnificent 7 and Chatbot purveyors). It puts Chinese selected tech companies back on the radar for international investors. But most of all it hefts China’s strategic position in the Greyzone…
Deep Seek - Deeply Seeking the Significance .
DeepSeek Disruption: Tech, Economic, Geopolitical DeepSeek disruption to AI Chatbots/LLMs, like ChatGPT4 and to suppliers of AI semiconductors like Nvidia, is significant. It can also change forecasts for ever rising electricity demand from data centres. But by corol…
The McKinley Factor
Investment Conclusion. Exceptionalism is not just about benefits but costs. The economic policies and geopolitical disruption of the second Trump Presidency are certainly exceptional but will incur more economic costs than benefits. These costs will be spread about the worl…
President Trump Inauguration Speech & the US$
President Trump inauguration speech. US$ may weaken for a while due to lack of immediate imposition of tariffs (in contrast with other policies like immigration) and statement that his administration would “ begin the overhaul” of trade with foreign countries. I don’t ex…
The Countdown Days of Trump II
What does the Gaza ceasefire accord mean? The answer is a lot. It defines the Trump II administration’s foreign policy – peace through strength with decisive personalised interventions. It makes it clear that there’ll be no immediate Israeli attack on Iran sanctioned by the US. …
US Sanctions - Russian Oil Tanks
Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude…
FOMC - the future confusion.
FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no…
South Korean Crisis - Update
S. Korea Political Crisis - Update. Ultimately the South Korean political crisis will be resolved by constitutional reform and an election leading to a left-wing government. There’ll no further threat of a coup or imposition of martial law. The arrest warrant for impeached Presi…