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Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine
Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine The disruption of the North Atlantic Alliance and the Liberal World Order are being acted upon by Beijing. Beijing beleives that these events reinforce its conviction that democracy is too decadent to defend itself and that the US will not…
The ECB - Seascapes, Poetry & more rate cuts to come.
ECB Policy Meeting. Conclusion: ECB will continue to cut rates by 25bp in each of the next two meetings. The ECB did as expected: 25bp off all three policy rates and changed to language on monetary stance from being restrictive to a more neutral stance. The…
Arming For War
The markets make no allowance for the diruption of economic nationalism, the destruction of global alliances and the the preparation of inevitable war. This report rips the veil of denial with 5 bullet points on one page.
German Election Update: An Economy Class Seat Instead of 1st Class to the Right Destination
A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is…
Update: the FOMC Minutes - January FOMC
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number…
Rough Calculation of potential US Reciprocal - Remedial Tariffs
Brace Yourself! Reciprocal US Tariffs. - tariffs likely to be announced April. These are not in market prices. The report sent you on Friday 15, 2025 - The Anatomy of Exceptionalism- deals with the categories of Tariffs President Trump is likely to impose see Chap…
US "Exceptionalism" and the USD - the drivers.
How US "Exceptionalism", and the bull market in the US$ and US equities are linked. Since just before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, foreigners' holdings of US financial assets has risen from US$ 20 trn. to US$ 30 trn. Of this increase 10% was down to increased holding by …
Rules of Thump - the China, Canada & Mexico Factor - Reminder
As a P.S. to the Rules of Thump - the Canadian, Chinese and Mexican Tariffs. My rough calculations of the Tariff hit to economies outside the US were included in the Friday (1/31) Update sent to you. But to summarise: The effect of these (1/31 Canadian, China & Me…
Rules of Thump - Tariffs - E-Mail Update
Tariffs: Rules of Thump . This is a follow up to my e-mail to to you on Trump's Tariffs last Friday (1/31) & the 2 reports Astern (1/08) & The McKInley Factor (1/26). Cantext; The Mexico, Canada, China tariffs ("Tariffs 1/31") declared by President Trump so far …
Trump Delivers the Tariffs as Expected
Trump Delivers. President Trump has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on imports from China. The tariffs will be effective immediately (Sat, Feb 1). At time of writing It is not clear whether there are exemptions (e.g. fo…