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The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv…
Events update.
Update - the week ahead. I don't expect any surrender by President Trump on April 9th. Barring that the full 25% rate of Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented. In comments made yesterday the President emphasised that his priority is to "address" the US current …
Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine
Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine The disruption of the North Atlantic Alliance and the Liberal World Order are being acted upon by Beijing. Beijing beleives that these events reinforce its conviction that democracy is too decadent to defend itself and that the US will not…
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright.
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u…
The Micro Podcast on Macro that matters to markets
David Roche: Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast for Macro that matters to Markets: Moving on from Trump cabinet appointments to policy the Trump Administration will pursue. I focus on two areas Tariffs and Ukraine - i look at likely policy choices and implications. Th…