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President Trump’s Post Supreme Court Ruling - Tariff Options.
President Trump’s Post Supreme Court Ruling - Tariff Options. Investment Conclusion The Supreme Court (SC) ruling on the Administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs will be binary. If it goes in favour of the Administration expect an upsurge i…
President Trump’s Putin Pivot
President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in …
Trade Update
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current…
The Phoney Peace?
The Phoney Peace? Investment Conclusion The market reaction to reduced US-China tariffs is unwarranted. The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its post Liberation Day losses and is only 5% below its peak. The existing tariffs and uncertainty will do a lot more…
China Spokesperson Statement on US Tariff Talks
China Spokesperson Statement on US Tariff Talks This is the statement (translated) this morning" “China has noted the repeated statements from senior US officials expressing a willingness to negotiate with China on tariff issues. At the same time, the US side has r…
On a Train in China
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause…
The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was…
US Tariffs: The Gentleman is for turning
The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi…