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President Trump’s Asia Trip – Not Trade but the New Cold War
President Trump’s Asia Trip – Not Trade but the New Cold War Investment Conclusion The trade result of President Trump’s Asian trip is to dial us back to where we were in February of this year as measured by tariffs. Some of the US “wins” need further evidence. For exam…
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le…
China: No Pushover!
China: No Pushover! Investment Conclusion I would not be in any hurry to participate in the current market rally in equities, bonds or the US$. The US equity market today tells us the world is only 9% worse off than when President Trump took office and as…
On a Train in China
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause…
China - The Great Leadership Shuffle
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