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The Fed and the BOJ: The Manichaean War for Central Bank Independence
The Fed and the BOJ More Fed cuts to come....but not the sort that will contiue to inspire confidence in equity markets. In Japan the battle for central bnk independence will be declared when Ueda raises rate by 75BP in the BoJ December meeting. That will …
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le…
The Jackson Hole Pivot
The Jackson Hole Pivot Investment Conclusion What Chair Powell's newly announced policy means for investors: More asset bubbles in equities, crypto and non-bank credit; Higher inflation down the road as the money will be printed to fund it; …
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in…
Update: the FOMC Minutes - January FOMC
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number…
FOMC - the future confusion.
FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no…