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The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le…
RTHK The Close: Jackson Hole Pivot and President Trump’s Crusade Against the US Fed
RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wright, Richard Harris & David Roche discuss Jackson Hole policy shift and Trump’s plot against the US Fed. Market implications.
RTHK: The Close - Business & market Discussion with Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris
So we know that when President Trump does not like reality he dismisses it and those who make him aware of it. Given the President's doubtful grip on reality we ask the question: How well is the the US economy actually doing? We get behind the volatility of people and data a…
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in…
The ECB & the Fed -- Some Points to Ponder.
Central Banks There were a few interesting things from the ECB and FOMC meetings: ECB Mme LaGarde is convinced that the Eurozone recovery is happening and will accelerate as inflation falls and real incomes rise. Real income will rise because wage increases will …
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: The Data: China's NBS PMIs and Industrial Profits. DeepSeek - the deeper meaning of disruption. Trump the first week- the economic consequences of ripping up Alliances. The Fed - when will Trump …
Peter Lewis Money Talk
Discussion with Mark Nicholson, Barry Wood and Peter Lewis about: 1. are Tariffs the only answer to China surpluses and everyone else's deficits. 2.What are China's booming exports telling us about future export demand. 3. Is shins really refocusing stimulus on creating consum…