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The Fed Minute Fumble
The Fed Minute Fumble The FOMC minutes must be assessed in the context of the US Treasury’s apparent intent to reduce long Treasury yields below market-determined levels. Stay short the US dollar. Stay short US Treasuries. Beware of the AI credit bubble, which will now reach new …
The X-Disruptions: A Mid-2026 Scorecard
We called eight "X-Disruptions" back in December 2025, so six months on, we graded our own homework. The verdict: Fed independence, BoJ/Yen stress, and Europe's defense build-out landed with striking precision, while our bearish equity call missed, but only on US/US-AI names, e…
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies The FOMC meeting will change nothing. But the Dot Plots will be telling for the future. And the things to watch for are: • Hints at the end of forward guidance. • Replacing the inflation target currently used by the Fe…
The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…