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The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
The Fed and the BOJ: The Manichaean War for Central Bank Independence
The Fed and the BOJ More Fed cuts to come....but not the sort that will contiue to inspire confidence in equity markets. In Japan the battle for central bnk independence will be declared when Ueda raises rate by 75BP in the BoJ December meeting. That will …
Peter Lewis Money talk with David Roche and Fancis Lun discussing: China the green ambitions and why the EU is the over-achieving dark horse; Trump change of tone on Ukraine- blather ot substance; The Fed loss of independence. h
Peter Lewis Money talk with David Roche and Fancis Lun discussing: : China the green ambitions and why the EU is the over-achieving dark horse; Trump change of tone on Ukraine- blather or substance; The Fed loss of independence.
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le…
RTHK The Close: Jackson Hole Pivot and President Trump’s Crusade Against the US Fed
RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wright, Richard Harris & David Roche discuss Jackson Hole policy shift and Trump’s plot against the US Fed. Market implications.
The Jackson Hole Pivot
The Jackson Hole Pivot Investment Conclusion What Chair Powell's newly announced policy means for investors: More asset bubbles in equities, crypto and non-bank credit; Higher inflation down the road as the money will be printed to fund it; …
CNBC- Access Middle East: with Dan Murphy and David Roche: What to expect from Jackson Hole & why tariffs are not of temporary effect.
Like it or not, the US Fed's Jackson Hole Conference is going to be all about Fed independence and the battle with President Trump to preserve it. The anodyne (labor market) theme of the Conference will not defuse that bomb. The issue of whether inflation concerns should outwe…
Peter Lewis Money Talk: Peter, Gary Ng & I discuss the US Vs Chinese Economies.
Peter Lewis Money Talk: What is the state of the US economy compared to China’s? Peter Lewis, Gary Ng and Little old me debate, discover and contrast!
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in…