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Tariffying!
Tariffying! US “remedial” tariffs to be announced on April 2 will raise the US effective tariff rate to above 15% - a level not seen since the Great Depression era. This is above the level needed to cause Tariff-Induced-Stagflation in the US economy. The announcement will co…
Astern!
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …
When Macro Will Matter
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore.
Autumn Sonata
Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear.
Inverted Pyramids Always Topple
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Protectionism - Beyond The Macro
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
US Chicken and egg of recession and inflation
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Inflationthatmatters
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
US Election - Its Still The Economy
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.