Reports Library
Showing All Results
FOMC - the future confusion.
FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no…
Astern!
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US Fed won't c…
Incidentally
“War is not caused by incidents, but its timing and trajectory often are. " There are three macro “incidents” that may matter to markets. 1. The new US comprehensive sanctions on Russian financial intermediaries may cripple the EU’s ability to pay for its USD 12bn a year imports …
Winter of Discontent
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growth gaps to narrow and…
Troubles Weekend
Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why!
Joe Biden Withdraws
It is confirmed that Joe Biden has withdrawn his candidacy for the Presidency. He endorses Kamala Harris as his successor. This choice is likely to be endorsed by the Democratic Party. Report follows.
US Fed- Not Quite Plain Vanilla
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
FOMC - Mirabile Dictu
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
The Global Manuservices Economy - Investment Themes
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.