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Korea After the Elections - wait!

Update ·David Roche ·06 Jun 2025

Korea after the elections. Lee Jay-Keung has one big advantage in that his party controls parliament and he is president. But he faces many daunting challenges that he does not control: 1. The economy is 87% international trade. If US 25% tariffs are imposed it will p…

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Astern!

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·08 Jan 2025

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …

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South Korean Crisis - Update

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·07 Jan 2025

S. Korea Political Crisis - Update. Ultimately the South Korean political crisis will be resolved by constitutional reform and an election leading to a left-wing government. There’ll no further threat of a coup or imposition of martial law. The arrest warrant for impeached Presi…

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Update: China CEWC & Korea in Limbo & France in a hell of its own making.

Update ·David Roche ·13 Dec 2024

Update China: CEWC: most of the statement is reiteration of previous stimulus packages. No new initiatives. No new money - in fact financing of the already announced interventions to stabilise the real estate market was omitted altogether.. Three shifts in langu…

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Korea Martial Law - Coup in a Tea Cup

Update ·David Roche ·03 Dec 2024

Korea Martial Law. I don't own any S. Korean assets or the currency. If you do, stay calm. This coup seems so bonkers - even by Korean standards - that it'll be gone and forgotten in a short time. If the process of impeachment of the president takes longer the KRW mi…

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