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Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in…
Update: the FOMC Minutes - January FOMC
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025 I thought the most significant statement in the Minutes was this: “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number…
The ECB & the Fed -- Some Points to Ponder.
Central Banks There were a few interesting things from the ECB and FOMC meetings: ECB Mme LaGarde is convinced that the Eurozone recovery is happening and will accelerate as inflation falls and real incomes rise. Real income will rise because wage increases will …
FOMC - the future confusion.
FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no…
France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.
Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the ri…
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US…
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into…
The Fed - A Trinity Of Thoughts
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