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Syria: Now for the Bad News
Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its …
Middle East & Russia: Update
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of …
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will…
When Macro Will Matter
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore.
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely.
Middleeast Thecontainableconfrontation
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