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Syria: Now for the Bad News
Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its …
Middle East & Russia: Update
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of …
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will…
Middle East: Limited Israeli Retaliation
Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i…
Middle East: The Inevitable War That'll Matter to Markets
A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero,
Middle East- The Mullah’s Mad Gamble
I got the Iranian attack on Israel wrong. All now depends on Israel's targeting of its escalatory response. If Israel uses its intelligence to decapitate the Iranian regime (and the IRGC), as it did with Hezbollah, then the economic spillover effects (e.g. energy)) will be limit…
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely.
Israel & Iran - The Proxy Veil Is Rent
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
The Heart And Mind Of Darkness
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.