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Ukraine: US 28 Point Plan is a Yalta moment for Europe.
President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan. President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan is the often repeated but now irrefutably defined proof that the US in on the same page as Putin about the causes and resolutions of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this time is different…
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front?
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front? Introduction The report “Russia – This is not Roulette (Sept 9)” got lots of follow up questions. The trust of the ensuing discussion is about the economic sustainability of war for the Kremlin. This is what I write about below.…
Russia – This is not Roulette
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.…
Ukraine - Russia: ceasefire deal update 2
Ukraine. Rubio and Witkoff will not attend talks in London after Ukraine rejects parts of the Ceasefire Proposal (giving Crimea to Russia). Ex General Kellog will go instead. Putin will be delighted. Zelensky can now be framed as the reason why the Cease Fire P…
The Truce Proposal
The Truce Proposal Investment Conclusion The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe …
Money Talk with Peter Lewis, Barry Wood, Simon.Kavanagh & little old me.
Robust conversation on: * German Election: the next four years are critical for the german economy, defence, europe. Domestically, in order to deprive the AfD of youth and lower income groups’ support, the economy must become the rising tide to lift all boats. * US Trump …
Divorce a l'Americain
Divorce a l'Americain The Liberal World Order and NATO are dead ducks. That opens the way for the Trump 2 Administration to hit Europe with very high (remedial/reciprocal) tariffs in April. Trump has no need for Europeans to help him with Ukraine. The EM…
Ukraine: Worse than Minsk
The liberal world order, if not dead, is very ill in bed. What replaces it will not be orderly or come cheap. States, previously part a network of alliances, will go it alone to ensure their own defense and strategic interests. There will be a massive increase in defence…
The Mini-Podcast on Macro
David Roche- Quantum Strategy- The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: US jobs blow out- what it tells us about the Fed going forward. China exports - tell us shipping ahead of Tariffs will create a growth vacuum later. US sanctions on Russian energy - why and how th…