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NDTV Geopolitics Centre Stage! When & Why does macro matter to markets
NDTV Geopolitics Centre Stage! When & Why does macro matter to markets. Applying the theoretical arguments about when Macro matters to Economies and to Markets to what is happening in the MIddle East.
NDTV The Big Question - is there an economic dividend from the UAE quitting OPEC
NDTV The Big Question - is there an economic dividend from the UAE quitting OPEC
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) - A QS Policy Paper:- MIddle East Conflict: Hidden Vulnerabilites & Strategic Failures.
This contibution was written for policy makers by David Roche of Quantum Strategy (Singaporean-based strategic advisor). It presents research on Chokeholds where the supply chains of the world economy can be squeezed shut by hostile powers with only basic weaponry. One ke…
NDTV The Opening: David Roche - The Coming Oil Crisis
NDTV The Opening: David Roche - The Coming Oil Crisis You can cut through the confusion by focussing on the one thing that tells you whether the ME Crisis is getting better or worse: is oil moving? It is NOT! What matters to economies and markes is when the…
A Strategy for Chokeholds
A Strategy for Chokeholds This report is about lessons to be learned from the Middle East blockades for the long term de-risking of portfolios and of supply chains. The former lessons are for portfolio managers and the latter for policy makers. The need is urgent because the…
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop Escalation of the Gulf makes the US policy of cutting off Iran’s oil revenues much more effective. The struggle within the Iranian regime, with the hardliners gaining ascendancy at the moment, makes a negotiated settlement with …
ME – Cutting to the Quick
ME – Cutting to the Quick The US blockade so far appears to be only partially successful in halting Iranian oil shipments or restoring freedom of navigation using the Omani exit route from the Straits of Hormuz (SoHo). The continued flow of oil from Iran will ease s…
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf The failure of the Peace Talks means there will be more military action. It is unlikely that the US can afford to return the massive scale of war promised us before. Economically and politically, that is too costly. Inst…
The Defeat of the Deal.
The Defeat of the Deal. This deal is taco with a price tag. For markets no war is a win. For investors it leaves us in Limbo- not Heavan or Hell. For the Iranian regime they emerge as the strategic victor from the war. It achieves lots of IRGC objectiv…
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones Here we look at 4 potential outcomes of the Middle East War through the lense of energy prices and demand destruction that matches the outcome. Demand destruction is measured in terms of: the required reduction in global energy c…