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US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was…
Germany - The Coalition is Signed! Here are the spending plans - bullish for growth and equities
Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) Agreed & Spending Plans. Positive for German equities. Bearish for long term Bunds (but not short term bunds). Marginally positive for the Euro. The German coalition agreement and the published spending plans are positive fo…
Events update.
Update - the week ahead. I don't expect any surrender by President Trump on April 9th. Barring that the full 25% rate of Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented. In comments made yesterday the President emphasised that his priority is to "address" the US current …
RUSI Piece on Us Policy- link below
Some clients are having trouble accessing the RUSI piece on US Policy. This is because they have not signed up for their own Quantum Strategy (QS) account and set a password. A reminder on how to do this will be sent shortly. In the meantime, here is direct link to the RU…
UK exempted from US Remedia Tariffs to be announced on April 2
There is a high probability that President Trump will exempt the UK from any US reciprocal/remedial tariffs to be imposed on April 2. EU will have no such luck. Of course this will create tension in the Alliance of the WIlling to defend Ukraine. That is seen as a win by the T…
Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine
Taiwan- Canary in the Coal Mine The disruption of the North Atlantic Alliance and the Liberal World Order are being acted upon by Beijing. Beijing beleives that these events reinforce its conviction that democracy is too decadent to defend itself and that the US will not…
The ECB - Seascapes, Poetry & more rate cuts to come.
ECB Policy Meeting. Conclusion: ECB will continue to cut rates by 25bp in each of the next two meetings. The ECB did as expected: 25bp off all three policy rates and changed to language on monetary stance from being restrictive to a more neutral stance. The…
Arming For War
The markets make no allowance for the diruption of economic nationalism, the destruction of global alliances and the the preparation of inevitable war. This report rips the veil of denial with 5 bullet points on one page.
German Election Update: An Economy Class Seat Instead of 1st Class to the Right Destination
A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is…