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Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
Strait of Hormuz Exports Jump on July 1 — But the World Is Still Living Off Storage
The world is still running a 6mn bpd crude supply deficit and living off inventory to hide it. David Roche's latest tracker on Strait of Hormuz flows, tanker traffic, and the countdown clock on Gulf storage. Full report attached.
Middle East Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover? Watch the Ships, Not the Rigs
David Roche assesses why Middle East crude supply should recover faster than production capacity over the next six months, as Gulf shipping flows and a 300mb inventory buffer narrow the global oil deficit and push crude toward a $75–85/bbl range.
ME Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover?
ME Energy How Fast Will Supply Recover No! I don’t think the ME Deal addresses any of the major issues or makes the world a better place. But it binds Iran and the US together with a common rope of self-interest. Iran, meaning the IRGC thugs, get back into the dollar flo…
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Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Middle East Oil Supply: David Roche's weekend WhatsApp update — now published in full for your reference.
Navigator: ME: 7 Days in May
Navigator: ME: 7 Days in May. This is the report version of a WhatsApp com sent to clients on June 1. Nothing is moving in the Straits of Hormuz. The ME hole in crude oil supply means the world is on a glide path to fall over the supply cliff in summer and beyond. But…
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep The divorce between equity markets and the Middle East crisis is irrational and unsustainable. The energy supply cliff we are approaching makes its collapse imminent.
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) - A QS Policy Paper:- MIddle East Conflict: Hidden Vulnerabilites & Strategic Failures.
This contibution was written for policy makers by David Roche of Quantum Strategy (Singaporean-based strategic advisor). It presents research on Chokeholds where the supply chains of the world economy can be squeezed shut by hostile powers with only basic weaponry. One ke…