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ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen…..
ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen….. This note provides a toolkit for thinking through what happens if the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) is reopened, either fully or partially — and what happens to oil prices if it is not. The best that can realistically be hoped for…
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter This piece looks at each of our major themes and highlights the critical investment variable that will make then succeed or fail. Middle East Oil Disruption - why the broadening, deepening conflict leaves Iran feeling stronger and the US lookin…
Navigator: Middle East Energy: Fragile Calculus
Navigator: Middle East Energy: Fragile Calculus Pivot: The week opened with hopes that the interim ceasefire would normalise trade flows. Exports appeared to recover temporarily, peaking at 14.5mn bpd on June 24. Shock: The June 25 drone strike on the M/V Ever Lovely tr…
Energy: The American Chapter – how US bails out the world & then doesn’t!
Energy: The American Chapter – how US bails out the world and then doesn’t! US produces and consumes 20mn bpd of crude oil equivalent. But on top this, the US is exporting 10mn bpd to its “allies” – European, Asian and Australia. Thus, the US is draining its own oil rese…
Navigator – Linking Dots
Navigator – Linking Dots. The global energy supply crisis driven by the Middle East (ME) War is set to get worse. Demand exceeds supply for oil and LNG plus some critical raw materials like sulphur. Absolute product shortages will be generalised by the end of summer. …
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP. (An earlier abbreviated text of this piece was sent to clients on the WhatsApp service at the weekend. Their savvy comments inspired revisions to the original now incorporated below.) New data and field work…