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ME – No Taco but Attack
ME – No Taco but Attack Investment Conclusion. President Trump has not gone TACO on Iran. The US will attack Iran’s nuclear asserts (e.g. Fordow) if Iran does not totally surrender its nuclear assets in short shift. No more negotiations. No more ducking and weaving. No…
ME- Portfolio on War Footing
ME- Portfolio on War Footing Investment Conclusion President Trump has shifted his stance to demanding “unconditional surrender” of Iran. If this is not just rhetoric or a negotiating ploy, it opens the way to escalation of the war. Israel and the US would then …
Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement
Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement Investment Conclusion The war will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to. It can also tip into a war focussed on regime-change (as Israel ambitions) or a pause for President Tr…
Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel
Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel Investment Conclusion The Israeli attack on Iran was coordinated with the US. The strategy is intended to force Iran to denuclearise on President Trump’s terms. Thus escalation will be limited for now as Ira…
The Gormless Eejit!
The Gormless Eejit! Investment Conclusion Can equities continue to rise while US bonds and the US$ to fall? I got this wrong so far. This note looks at the economic logic of this divorce. It could continue if disruption is over. But that’s unlikely. The wider economi…
Update: US Container traffic and Escalation in the Baltics and Ukraine?
Investment Conclusion President Trump will get more extreme on tariffs. Watch China & the EU. Russia will escalate in Ukraine after a significant hi tech defeat. Neither is bullish for financial assets. If Putin escalates in the Baltic on top of his current escalation t…
Uncertainty as a Certainty – Wealth Preservation Portfolio
Uncertainty as a Certainty – Wealth Preservation Portfolio Investment Conclusion There are no changes to the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. The ruling by the US Court of International Trade (USCIT), that the President’s use of the International Emergency Ec…
Wealth Preservation Portfolio (WPP) - Update
Wealth Protction Portfolio - Update Investment Conclusion There is no change in my pessimistic view of the current rally in risk assets. The only change in the WPP this week is to add some risk diversification in the form of Hong Kong equities (the Tracker) – see: …
Doing an Odd Thing – Hong Kong
Doing an Odd Thing – Hong Kong Investment Conclusion I am buying some HK equities. HK assets are a diversification of US policy risks. The worse it goes for the US, the more money pours back into HK. The HK$ peg does the rest. The inflows surge domestic liquidity. …
The Phoney Peace?
The Phoney Peace? Investment Conclusion The market reaction to reduced US-China tariffs is unwarranted. The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its post Liberation Day losses and is only 5% below its peak. The existing tariffs and uncertainty will do a lot more…