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RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright and David Roche
RTRHK The Close. The Legacy of Jimmy Carter. China's data - industrial profits and a look into the things to watch in 2025. Putin's game plan under the Baltic Sea. The surprises for 2025: reversal of Fed policy; The war to end all wars between Iran and Israel; Put…
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters.
Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Micro Podcast on Macro! Sign on for Free Research Trial: https://www.QuantumStrategy.org Coming up his week: - The pulling forward of demand in China that will create gaps in demand later: Exports, Consumer Durables, Autos and…
Baltic Undersea Electricity Cables – More Than Meets the Eye.
The sabotage of the Baltic EstLInk2 undersea electricity cable linking Finland to Estonia is not “story over”. The Baltic States are supposed to celebrate the end of their membership of BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) soviet era electricity supply grid in …
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK.
Middle East & Russia: Update
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of …
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will…
Russia Rough Update
Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. T…
RTHK - The Close
The US Presidential - swing to Trump in polls. Meaning of Trump or Harris victory for markets. China stimulus- will the consumer follow orders and shop? Moldova - the corrosive power of Moscow disinformation and corruption. Middle East- Israeli riposte - the delay means more - …
Winter of Discontent
There will be a bear market in the next 12 months. The DNA of the bear market is writ large: the inevitable war on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities; Russia and Ukraine again becoming economically relevant to markets; unrequited market expectations for growt…