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The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
Iran War-ning
Iran War-ning. Investment Conclusion. The arms build-up in the Middle East (ME) is consistent with war, not blockade, in coming days. The war aim will probably be to overthrow of the regime. Lesser war aims are possible, such as obliterating more Iranian ballistic mi…
Gold, the Gap and the Clotty Sheep!
Gold, The Gap and the Clotty Sheep! Investment Conclusion The Wealth Preservation Portfolio is reducing gold by one fifth from its current weighting in the portfolio of 17% (after price run up). The proceeds are being added to safe haven currencies. These are AUD, SG…
Iran: The whole Hog?
I ran - The Whole Hog Investment Conclusion. War to achieve regime change in Iran is looking imminent. The initial result will be risk off and rising oil prices. But longer term a renascent Iran will reduce global oil prices by US$10-12/bbl. This is all set out in…
The Real Davos Debate
The Real Davos Debate analyses the implications of accelerated European economic militarisation if President Trump dumps NATO. The costs, financing and fiscal and monetary implications are grouped under the headings of: Accelerating EU defence spending to 5% of GDP in…
Navigator.
Navigator. Why President Trump's Greenland Tariffs are binary. They can either set off a new EU-US trade war and call NATO into question, Or result in Greenland being the last political tariffs to be used by Trump and removed from his arsenal by the US Supreme Court. …
Tariffs: President Trump’s Greenland Can of Worms.
Tariffs: President Trump’s Greenland Can of Worms. Investment Conclusion President Trump has opened a can of tariff worms about Greenland. There are a lot of moving parts here, some of them very disruptive. But here are the key issues: The Current EU – US Tr…
Japan- Takaichi’s High Stakes Gamble
Japan- Takaichi’s High Stakes Gamble Investment Strategy. Ms Takaichi informed the leadership of the LDP and Ishin no Kai on Jan 14 that she will dissolve parliament on January 23. The election will then take place in early February – 8 or 9 th . The outcome…
Navigator.
Navigator. Investment Conclusion Maverick policies by the US will increasingly strain market optimism. The Wealth Preservation Portfolio (at the back) is 50% invested in safe haven assets. It is negative on US$, US long term Treasuries and US equites. It is ne…