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Shifting Sands - error corrected
the Shifting sands report had a mistake. The text said US tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminium was 25% it is of course 50%. the figure of 50% was throughout the report - including grahics and tables. sorry! d
Monday Odd Bins.
Shipping Data. So far, Chinese total exports have weathered US tariffs without a contraction. Exports to other places than the US have grown and more than offset losses to the US. That is "normal" as US exports are only US 500bn out of a total of nearly US$ 4 trn. The questi…
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in…
Things of note
Things of Note: Shipping The shipping data is interesting. US container imports for May were down 7% through all ports. US shipping exports (including non container traffic) were similarly weak. The Port of LA data continues to show a bid drop in container imports 3 wee…
Port of Los Angeles Inward Bound Container Data
The Port of Los Angeles Inward Bound Container Data continue to show 137k and 115k TEU arrivals per week in eacjh of the next two weeks and a big drop thereafter. Much of that drop may be ironed out as we get closer to the the week (29) of July 13 to 19. That's what happened t…
US Container Traffic, TICS, The BIS Study of the weaker US$ & BBB Clause 988
This Update will be quick as the Middle East is dominating research resources! 1. Port of Los Angeles Data shows fairly stable container flows at TEU 134k and then 127k for next two weeks but then there is a pretty massive fall to TEU 77k in the week of July 6 to July 12. If…
US Container Traffic Data - inward bound in TEUs
The Port of Los Angeles inward bound anticipated container traffic is set to run at 122k to 123k TEUs this week and next. This is slightly above the low levels of a year ago. However in the week ending July 7 volumes drop back to the average run rate of 100k TEUs. This is not a…
US Port of Los Angeles Anticipated Inward Container Arrival up to June 28 - Grounds for hope not ecstacy
Here is the anticipated inward US container port data for the next three weeks - as provided by the Port of Los Angeles. (The port of Los Angeles handles 40% of US containerised imports. 50% of its traffic is from China. That is why i use it as a proxy for US container …
The taxation of foreign investment in the US.
The taxation and breakdown of global capital flows (Written on a plane - unchecked, illiterate but important) QS strategy includes capital controls and taxation of foreign investment as part of the fragmentation of world order. It is also part of the potty e…
Korea After the Elections - wait!
Korea after the elections. Lee Jay-Keung has one big advantage in that his party controls parliament and he is president. But he faces many daunting challenges that he does not control: 1. The economy is 87% international trade. If US 25% tariffs are imposed it will p…