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Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter This piece looks at each of our major themes and highlights the critical investment variable that will make then succeed or fail. Middle East Oil Disruption - why the broadening, deepening conflict leaves Iran feeling stronger and the US lookin…
Navigator: Middle East Energy: Fragile Calculus
Navigator: Middle East Energy: Fragile Calculus Pivot: The week opened with hopes that the interim ceasefire would normalise trade flows. Exports appeared to recover temporarily, peaking at 14.5mn bpd on June 24. Shock: The June 25 drone strike on the M/V Ever Lovely tr…
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep The divorce between equity markets and the Middle East crisis is irrational and unsustainable. The energy supply cliff we are approaching makes its collapse imminent.
Navigator
Navigator. This report is not about the price of gas at the pump. It is about what happens when there is no gas at the pump. The long AUD position has been closed, and the proceeds are being added to EU Renewable Energy Equities. The reason is that the energy crisis me…
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) - A QS Policy Paper:- MIddle East Conflict: Hidden Vulnerabilites & Strategic Failures.
This contibution was written for policy makers by David Roche of Quantum Strategy (Singaporean-based strategic advisor). It presents research on Chokeholds where the supply chains of the world economy can be squeezed shut by hostile powers with only basic weaponry. One ke…
A Strategy for Chokeholds
A Strategy for Chokeholds This report is about lessons to be learned from the Middle East blockades for the long term de-risking of portfolios and of supply chains. The former lessons are for portfolio managers and the latter for policy makers. The need is urgent because the…
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop Escalation of the Gulf makes the US policy of cutting off Iran’s oil revenues much more effective. The struggle within the Iranian regime, with the hardliners gaining ascendancy at the moment, makes a negotiated settlement with …
ME – Cutting to the Quick
ME – Cutting to the Quick The US blockade so far appears to be only partially successful in halting Iranian oil shipments or restoring freedom of navigation using the Omani exit route from the Straits of Hormuz (SoHo). The continued flow of oil from Iran will ease s…
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf The failure of the Peace Talks means there will be more military action. It is unlikely that the US can afford to return the massive scale of war promised us before. Economically and politically, that is too costly. Inst…
The Defeat of the Deal.
The Defeat of the Deal. This deal is taco with a price tag. For markets no war is a win. For investors it leaves us in Limbo- not Heavan or Hell. For the Iranian regime they emerge as the strategic victor from the war. It achieves lots of IRGC objectiv…