Reports Library
Showing All Results
Middle East: The Inevitable War That'll Matter to Markets
A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero,
Middle East- The Mullah’s Mad Gamble
I got the Iranian attack on Israel wrong. All now depends on Israel's targeting of its escalatory response. If Israel uses its intelligence to decapitate the Iranian regime (and the IRGC), as it did with Hezbollah, then the economic spillover effects (e.g. energy)) will be limit…
Russia - The Rubbish Budget
The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high.
Japan- The LDP leadership election - Why leadership matters
Leadership matters in Japan with the biggest impact being on regional security
The Middle East- is this the start of the wider war?
Israeli airstrike against Hezbollah makes the Middle East Armageddon more unlikely.
Ukraine- Kursk Offensive
Kursk offensive has potential to be a turning point in this war if Ukraine achieves strategic objectives. If so market effects would be significant.